Weekly Report – 19.07.2021

Current situation

The Crypto market is led by bitcoin and for us to appreciate this market as a whole, we will consider bitcoin as the reference for the general analysis to understand where this market is heading from a technical perspective.

Since inception, bitcoin reached 17,798.68 high on 17/12/2017 in a five waves structure that was calling for a continuation higher after correction. This correction from the 17/12/2017 high took one year to complete down to 3,156.26 low to start a new cycle higher. The first leg of this cycle brought bitcoin to 13,970.00 high on 26/06/2019 in a three waves pattern that bulls could not convert into a bullish structure and from there we saw a deep correction to 3,782.13 low on 09/03/2020 (that we consider as an aberration event following covid-19 breakout as we initially called for the end of the correction on 18/12/2019 low at 6,435.00. By that time, we were waiting for signals to resume swing trades that did not come until early April in our system).

A major cycle has ended, truncated, at 64,854.00 all-time high dated 14/04/2021 from March 2020 low at 3,782.13. From the top, we propose either a diagonal that ended on 22/06/2021 at 28,805.00 either a double correction that ended at 30,000.00 on 19/05/2021. Either way, we are calling for a continuation lower in the weekly view to as low as 19,000 (log scale projection) or at least 24,075.00 in the current cycle from 15/06/2021 high at 41,3330.00.

We do not discard the possibility of a triangle but current structure in lower time frame suggests at least 26,855.00 below the 28,805.00 mark that if broken opens technically immediately 24,075.00.

So, we are out of all medium-term position since Ethereum broke below 2,045 which equates for bitcoin to 32,200 and out of long-term position since 52,750 and 46,050.

For medium and long-term position, we need to see either our targets lower to be reached or back above 41,000ish to enter long again. On shorter time frame, for our swings, we need to see price at least back above the 34,000 mark with either bullish sequence or structures.

What to expect this week

Another week in the red with momentum pointing to more weakness to come. Thus, this week, we expect to see 30,616.97-29,797.48 and possibly 30,143.00-27,347.79 in a bid lower.

Alternatively, back above 32,435.00 would relieve bearish pressure but as long as below 34,666.00, we like to see price lower to challenge 28,805.00 anyway.